Benjamin Netanyahu is due to sit down with Donald Trump at the presidential resort in Florida on Monday evening. This occurs as concerns grow that Israel could begin new operations against enemies in the region, risking plunging the Middle East deeper into instability.
The prime minister departed Israel on Sunday, representing his fifth meeting to see Trump in the United States in the current year.
Ceasefire in Gaza and Looming Hurdles
High on the agenda will be the halt in hostilities in Gaza, which in October halted the destructive two-year war. While the stipulations for an first stage have been mostly completed, with Israeli forces withdrawing to new positions and Hamas releasing all living and nearly all of the deceased hostages, significant challenges confront the implementation of the second phase of the president's 20-point plan.
There are further fears that Israel will launch new offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon, violating a ceasefire established more than a year ago, or against Iran, which it accuses of speeding up the manufacture of ballistic missiles in the past few months.
“Phase 1 is practically over, there’s one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which [Hamas] are having difficulty finding,” noted a peace-building expert.
The two adversaries accuse each other of breaking the truce. Hamas has declined to clearly commit to laying down its weapons and has had significant success in re-establishing its rule in the parts of Gaza where nearly the entire population is situated. Israel seems hesitant to withdraw from the 53% of Gaza it now controls or to enable the unhindered flow of aid into the territory.
“The next stage has to begin … and I think the Americans realise that it’s late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is absolutely not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place,” the expert stated.
Humanitarian Cost and Present Conditions
More than 70,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, lost their lives in Gaza during the war and nearly the entire the territory’s 2.3 million population was forced from their homes. Approximately 400 Palestinians have died in Gaza since the October ceasefire, and huge numbers continue to live in conditions of extreme difficulty.
In the last month, torrential rains and chilly weather have compounded the misery in Gaza, where most housing and infrastructure have been badly damaged or leveled.
The war was triggered by a sudden assault by Hamas in southern Israel in 2023, in which 1,200 people, mostly civilians, were killed and 250 others captured.
Future Steps and Political Frustrations
Under the subsequent phases of the plan, an transitional administration made up of nonaligned Palestinian technocrats is to run the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas. An multinational peacekeeping force of thousands of troops is to be deployed.
US officials have hinted the membership of the new authority could be made public in January.
Reports indicate that senior US officials are becoming impatient “as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the unstable peace and stall the peace process”.
“There are increasing indications that the American administration is getting impatient with Netanyahu,” commented a regional analyst. “The question is what it’s going to do about it, because phase 2 is right now going nowhere fast.”
Netanyahu's Priorities
For Netanyahu, a priority will be convincing Trump to allow Israel to act to prevent Iran from rebounding inflicted on its nuclear programme or building its ballistic missile capabilities.
Meanwhile, efforts to secure a defence pact between Israel and Syria have not advanced meaningfully and will also be discussed at Mar-a-Lago. Israeli officials have also called for more effective efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
Netanyahu is confronted with an election within 10 months, and the looming polls will affect his agenda. “Everything is connected to [his] staying in power,” an analyst said.
Opinion surveys show Netanyahu’s current coalition would have a hard time to form a government if elections were held now. Many voters are frustrated over the shortcomings that led to the 2023 Hamas raid, policies concerning military service exemptions, and a string of controversies.
A close relationship with Trump would bolster Netanyahu’s appeal among floating voters and his base. This indicates any visible discord between the two leaders is very doubtful, analysts said.
Netanyahu is expected to seek to persuade Trump of the need for Israel to maintain a technological superiority over potential regional enemies. Many Israeli officials were concerned by previous US comments regarding advanced weapons sales to other regional states.
