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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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