The overthrow and alleged seizure by invading US forces of Nicolas Maduro will send a shiver of fear and consternation across the globe. This power grab is unlawful, without justification, and destabilizing for the region and the world. It overturns international norms, ignores sovereign territorial rights, and potentially creates an anarchic situation inside Venezuela itself.
It is chaos made policy. But this is the reality we currently inhabit – the universe as defined by Donald Trump.
A Remarkable and Perilous Declaration of Unchecked American Might
The direct attack on Venezuela marks an extraordinary, dangerous declaration of unchecked American might and comes in the same week that Trump threatened military strikes against another unpopular government opposed to the West: that of Iran. It comes after many months of increasing US pressure through military, economic, and political means on Maduro, including lethal maritime attacks on vessels suspected of drug smuggling.
Trump claims to be acting to stop illicit drugs flowing into the US via Venezuela and to cease an alleged influx of “criminal” migrants. In an repetition of the American incursion into Iraq in 2003, he is also accused of coveting Venezuela’s vast oil and gas resources – suspicions reinforced by frequent, unlawful US seizures of Venezuelan petroleum carriers.
But Trump’s primary motives seem to be individual hostility directed at Maduro, and a wish to resurrect the historical Monroe Doctrine by establishing a US sphere of influence and supremacy across the Western Hemisphere.
Hemispheric Alarm and Global Repercussions
Regional leaders, such as Colombia’s president, who has clashed with Trump in the past few months, met the takeover with outrage and alarm; in part, possibly, because they worry they also could become victims of Washington’s aggressive new hegemony. Cuba’s socialist administration has special reason for worry. It depends significantly on Venezuela’s regime for cheap energy and political and economic support.
The US top diplomat has made no secret of his desire for a change in government in Havana. In Panama, too, levels of concern will be running high. Trump has in the past menaced armed intervention there, over authority over the Panama Canal. Indeed, the alleged apprehension of Maduro brings to mind the 1989 US incursion into Panama and the overthrow and detention of its leader at the time.
Autocratic, undemocratic governments globally will be closely observing Trump’s subsequent moves, as will Washington’s allies in democracy. Iran denounced the overthrow. It has valid cause to be fearful. But Russia’s president may not be completely unhappy by the removal of his Venezuelan ally.
A Perilous Benchmark for International Disputes
Trump’s unprovoked resort to violence is not so very different from actions in invading Ukraine. Both have unlawfully assaulted a bordering nation and attempted to oust its leadership. For China’s leader, whose forces were last week conducting military exercises against the “breakaway factions” of Taiwan, Trump has just established a benchmark he may eventually happily emulate.
Trump’s coup is of great concern to Britain, the EU and western democracies. They ought to, and have to, clearly denounce it. It directly challenges the rules and principles of the global system they cherish. The US has once again disregarded the United Nations and conventional approaches of addressing inter-state grievances. And it is acting with apparently scant regard for the subsequent events in Venezuela.
An Unclear Future and Risk of Disorder
The Caracas government has been decapitated, but remaining high-ranking figures of the regime seem to remain at their posts. They are calling for opposition and, possibly, reprisals against the US. There are unconfirmed reports of non-combatant deaths. If a leadership void forms, civil stability could collapse, sparking internal conflict or a potential armed takeover. And it is unclear whether the latest US military action has ended, or may escalate further.
The notion that banished dissident figures will quickly come back and that full democracy will now be restored is unrealistic. The next few days will be critical. And the responsibility lies entirely with Trump.
The Illusion of a Peacemaker
Trump’s reckless action should finally lay to rest his always misleading self-portrayal as a “global peacemaker”. It’s past time that leaders in Europe openly acknowledge him for who he is – a international provocateur of war, a worldwide threat.
Each time he stumbles clumsily into conflict zones, imposing timelines, issuing ultimatums, choosing sides and monetising misery, the quest for just and lasting peace is set back.
No surprise peace is elusive. And bizarrely, even while presenting himself as a disinterested peacemaker and one who avoids intervention, Trump concurrently conducts warfare on the world. The US conducted record numbers of aerial bombardments in the Middle East and Africa last year, surveys show.
A Heritage Built on Violence
Since returning to office a year ago, the ostensibly peace-seeking President has bombed Yemen, carelessly killing many non-combatants after relaxing combat protocols; bombed Nigeria, to counter-productive effect; bombed Somalia, Iraq and Syria; and targeted Iranian sites, where he mendaciously exaggerated the effectiveness of American attacks on nuclear facilities. He even will not exclude bombing Greenland, a independent land of a NATO partner.
What’s going on in the President's mind? A charitable view is that in issues of conflict and tranquility, he has no idea what his actions entail – no strategy, no clue – and makes up policy as he goes, depending on how he feels.
The more ominous reading says he knows exactly what he is doing, that greater and more severe actions is to come. Like previous second-term presidents who ran out of road at home, Trump finds the global platform provides more opportunities for the application of authority and ego. He is building a legacy in blood.
Trump’s irresponsible, dangerously erratic behaviour is getting measurably worse. His Venezuela “success” may embolden him to try further and larger, irrational atrocities. He parades and postures, cries havoc! and lets slip the dogs of war.
